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But a presumption of guilt in alleged sexual offenses is as dangerous as a presumption of guilt in any crime, and for the same reasons: It upends the foundations on which our system of justice rests and creates a risk of ruining innocent lives. A commonly cited estimate, which may have originated with feminist author Susan Brownmiller in the 1970s, is that they account for only about 2 percent of rape reports.

After the Oberst fiasco, feminist blogger Rebecca Watson posted a video asserting that, statistically, you will be wrong two out of 100 times if you presume a rape accusation to be true and 98 out of 100 times if you presume it to be false.

A similar pattern can be found in a recent study often cited as evidence of the rarity of false accusations: a 2010 paper by psychologist David Lisak, which examined all 136 sexual assault reports made on a northeastern university campus over a 10-year period.

For 19 of these cases, the files did not contain enough information to evaluate the outcome.

Rape is a repugnant crime—and one for which the evidence often relies on one person’s word against another’s.

Yet the truth is even knottier than these statistics suggest. ” depends largely on how false allegations are defined.However, in challenging what author and law professor Susan Estrich has called “the myth of the lying woman,” feminists have been creating their own counter-myth: that of the woman who never lies.More than a quarter-century ago, feminist legal theorist Catharine Mac Kinnon wrote that “feminism is built on believing women’s accounts of sexual use and abuse by men”; today, Jessica Valenti urges us to “believe victims en masse,” because only then will we recognize the true prevalence of sexual assault.Do we count only cases in which a police report—or a complaint to some other official authority, such as a college administrator—is shown to be deliberately false?Do we include informal, word-of-mouth charges like the one against Oberst?The woman, who claimed she had no memory of the event, received strong support from feminist activists on campus and was vilified as a liar on men’s rights websites.